India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 20 per cent chance of drought due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said on Monday.
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The onset of the southwest monsoon is being keenly watched this year as it may provide an early sign regarding its progress over the Indian subcontinent, particularly when El Nio is expected to rear its head during the latter half of the season.
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Sowing of crops at this point of time, when the onset of monsoon is delayed and chances of good rains are less, will only push up the cost for farmers and also hamper the yield of the crop: Skymet.
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By June 14, the monsoon should have reached central India. But this year it hasn't even covered Karnataka properly or entered the Northeast.
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A normal monsoon will augur well for the country's agriculture sector and boost crop yields. However, good rains - and surplus crops - could also depress prices, hurting farm income, unless adequate steps are taken.
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An El Nino is a temporary change in the climate of the Pacific Ocean, in the region around the equator.
Around 40 per cent of the country is staring at drought-like conditions ahead of the monsoon as water levels have receded sharply.
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A likely western disturbance over north India during the weekend might cause heavy to very heavy showers in a few places, including New Delhi.
"The season averaged maximum temperatures in Himachal Pradesh, West Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Arunachal Pradesh are likely to be higher than normal by 0.5-1.0 degree Celsius," the Met department has said in its forecast.
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East India, along with a major portion of central India, is likely to be at a higher risk of being rain deficient, especially during the first half of the season.
However, the areas under paddy - the biggest cereal grown during the kharif season - continue to be less than last year, mainly due to delayed onset of rains and also on account of shift towards the more lucrative maize.
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Assocham-Skymet report says untimely rain may reappear in north India.
Till June 30, the southwest monsoon was 33 per cent lower than normal, which is among the worst in the last five years, with 28 of the 36 meteorological divisions recording deficient rain.
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